A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
